SELF RELIANCE lectual elites) will consider that trade-off favorably will probably increase rapidly. * * * lt is felt that these arguments carry a certain weight and are already being reflected, increasingly, at the global, domestic and local levels of political thought and action. If put into practice there will be implications for world interaction in general and world trade in particular, as indicated in this Table: Center-Center Center-Periphery Periphery-Periphery intra-sector trade UP ? UP inter-sector trade ? DOWN ? The most important dynamic tendency will be in the direction of decreased Center-Periphery inter-sector trade (i.e. across genuine gaps in the level of processing) as an expression of increased Periphery tendency to process their own raw materials and use their own tertiary sector, their own services. As a consequence of this and equally much as an expression of selfreliance one may hypothesize increased intra-sector trade (raw materials against raw materials, [semi]manufactures against [semi]manufactures, services against services) both in the Center and in the Periphery. ln doing so the Periphery will not only preserve more of the positive externalities for the Periphery and distribute them more evenly among themselves; they will also be better protected against terms of trade fluctuations since there will be more focus on intra-sector trade. What will happen in the other three cells in the Table is hard to postulate but the general hypothesls is certainly that increased selfreliance involves redirection and recomposition of trade and, consequently, will have an impact of the total world trade picture. Whether the total world trade volume will go up or down or remain about the same under a system of self-reliance is another matter, however - there is hardly any basis for knowing. The same, needless to say, applies to everything else said above: it is highly hypothetical. The thirteen rationales should be seen as hypothesis about positive effects that would derive from a policy of self-reliance, and there are also hypothesis about negative effects. To mention some of them: 67
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